It’s a good time to be a teen in the job market. According to an analysis of BLS data by Challenger, Gray, & Christmas, the labor force participation rate among 16- to 19-year-olds was 42.9% in June--the highest June participation rate since 2009. Employers added 884K teen jobs last month, a +41% increase YoY. Most of these jobs were in leisure and hospitality.

With employers desperate to fill open positions, teens are entertaining multiple job offers. Some states have even resorted to lowering the eligible working age to find workers. Teens are also earning higher wages: According to the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker, wage growth among 16- to 24-year-olds has far exceeded that of older workers in recent months. In June, wages for the youngest workers grew +12.5% YoY, compared to +5.3% overall.

As we’ve discussed before, college enrollment trends suggest that many of the teens taking these jobs are those who would have, in a less appealing labor market, headed to community college. (See “College Enrollment Declines Deepen.”) Some were in college but have dropped out to get a job instead. The main beneficiaries of the hot labor market have been young people working low-skill, entry-level jobs, not those pursuing white-collar careers.

But as the outlook for the economy darkens, some experts warn that the decision to forgo a degree might come back to haunt these workers. The same young people who are bringing home fat paychecks today would be the first to be let go in a downturn and may find themselves with few options.

During the Great Recession, college enrollment surged as students went back to school to improve their job prospects. From 2006 to 2011, enrollment in two-year colleges increased by +33%. If a recession were to hit now, enrollment would probably increase once more--but this time around, it would be tempered by the growing skepticism of higher ed that’s unrelated to the state of the economy. Programs with better ROI, namely the skilled trades, might see big gains (see “Skilled Trades Defy the College Enrollment Decline”), but expensive 2nd- and 3rd-tier liberal arts programs will continue to struggle.