NewsWire
from Demography
Did Berniacs Push Donald Trump Over the Top?
New data show that 12% of voters who cast a ballot for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primaries went on to vote for Donald Trump. These voters, who were less likely to identify as Democrats in the first place, drive home the point that populism often takes priority over partisanship in the voting booth.
—NPR
With Bernie's renewed push for 2020, this bit of remarkable information is rising again on political news sites. The massive size and validated accuracy of this survey (every voter is vetted) ensures that this number is fairly accurate. And yes this margin was more than large enough to carry Trump over the top.
To be sure, the spread of "open primaries" means that some of these voters were not Democrats. Still, according to the survey, 45% of these Sanders-Trump voters considered themselves Democrats and another 25% considered themselves "independent." Only 5% said they were "strong Republicans."
It's also not uncommon for primary voters to cross party lines in the general election. In 2016, 10% of Marco Rubio voters went on to support Clinton--as did 32% of John Kasich voters. But here the motivation was obvious: These voters, turned off by Trump's emotional extremism, pulled the lever for someone closer to their own more moderate GOP outlook--that is, someone more toward the "middle." But how can you apply that explanation to someone who supported a candidate at the left edge of the Democratic Party and then voted for a "MAGA" tribalist on the right?
IMO, we have entered an era in which the usefulness of the traditional left-right ideological spectrum is being challenged by a very different spectrum--call it populist-versus-elitist or authoritarian-versus-libertarian. On that new spectrum, the populists and authoritarians on the left and right can often find a common cause. Bernie Sanders understands this perfectly well, which is why he recently appeared on a ratings-busting one-hour Fox News special, in Bethlehem, PA, with rusted-out factories in the background. As the ramp-up to 2020 continues, this new reality will gradually dawn on more Democratic candidates. Just yesterday, Pete Buttigieg drew parallels between Bernie's and Donald's supporters and said both want to "turn against the system" and "blow up the system."
I've spelled this thesis out in the European context as well (see: "Most French Citizens Disapprove of Macron"), pointing out that it's not the rising strength of either the populist right or the populist left in France or Italy that is portentous--it is the rise of both at the expense of the moderate middle.